Media channels are currently flooded with commentaries attempting to explain U.S. President Donald Trump’s motives for initiating a confrontation with Iran, as well as his sudden shift in direction just moments before the Iranian regime seemed on the verge of collapse. It appears that in the Trump era, rational explanations for American maneuvers are hard to come by, and predicting future actions is virtually impossible. On the other hand, those familiar with the culture, history, mindset, and faith of the peoples of the Middle East can indeed analyze and explain the moves and decisions made by these nations’ leaders – particularly those of Iran – and anticipate how they will behave in the future.
On February 11, 1979, after the Iranian monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled for his life, the religious leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran. He established a provisional government and declared the transition of the country into an Islamic Republic. The true significance of the Islamic Revolution in Iran was not merely the overthrow of the Shah and the replacement of a secular regime with a religious one. Its profound meaning lay in the fact that, for the first time in history, the Shia community transformed from a persecuted, passive minority within the Muslim world into a leading, influential force. Its new mission was to export Shia Islam globally to pave the way for the arrival of the Mahdi, the Hidden Imam.
To understand who the Mahdi is – the central messianic figure according to Twelver Shia tradition, destined to return at the end of days to fill the world with justice and righteousness after it has been filled up with injustice and evil – one must go back 1,150 years to the 9th century, the era of Islam’s most turbulent political and religious tensions. Born as Muhammad al-Mahdi in 869 AD in the city of Samarra (in modern-day Iraq), he is the son of the eleventh Imam, Hasan al-Askari, and a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad through the marriage of the Prophet’s beloved daughter, Fatima, to his beloved cousin, Ali.
At that time, the Muslim world was ruled by the Sunni Abbasid Caliphate. In the ongoing struggle between Sunnis and Shias over Islamic succession, the Shias maintained that leadership belonged exclusively to the direct descendants of the Prophet Muhammad. Consequently, the Abbasids, viewing the Shia Imams as a potent political threat, persecuted, imprisoned, or assassinated them.
Furthermore, the Sunni Abbasids were well aware of the Shia prophecies predicting that the twelfth Imam would be the Mahdi – an emissary of Allah who would overthrow tyranny and establish divine justice. The Abbasid authorities therefore obsessively monitored the family of the eleventh Imam, Hasan al-Askari, aiming to prevent the birth of his son or to eliminate him before he could inherit his father’s mantle.
The birth of the heir was kept in absolute secrecy. In 874 AD, when the Mahdi was only a child of about five, his father passed away. According to Shia tradition, immediately after the funeral, where the young Mahdi led the funeral prayers, the Abbasid Caliph’s soldiers attempted to capture the boy. At that precise moment, the Mahdi entered the cellar of his home and vanished.
This marked the beginning of the Minor Occultation, known as Al-Ghaybah al-Sughra, which lasted for 70 years until 941 AD. During this period, the Mahdi communicated with his followers through four successive deputies, who relayed questions to him and brought back his answers.
Since 941 AD and continuing to this day, the period of the Major Occultation, Al-Ghaybah al-Kubra, has been underway. In this current era, there is no direct contact with the Mahdi. Shias believe he lives a normal yet hidden life within our world. Tradition holds that the Mahdi lives among the faithful, observes them, and guides them spiritually, but does not reveal his true identity to anyone until he receives the divine signal from Allah to manifest himself.
For centuries following the Mahdi’s disappearance, the dominant approach among Shia religious scholars was one of political passivity, known as Intizar (anticipation). According to this perspective any attempt to establish an Islamic state or government prior to the Mahdi’s arrival is considered a sin or a venture predetermined to fail; hence, all contemporary governance lacks ultimate legitimacy.
This passive doctrine dictates that believers should focus on fulfilling religious commandments, maintaining morality, studying, and helping others. It forbids any active attempt to hasten the Mahdi’s return or to rebel against rulers; instead, believers must endure suffering quietly and wait for Allah to give the Mahdi the signal to return. Traditional scholars argued that anyone attempting to establish a state in the name of Shia Islam before the Mahdi’s return is effectively usurping his place, which borders on heresy.
Confronting this deeply entrenched worldview, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led a dramatic paradigm shift by developing the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist). According to Khomeini, believers must not sit idly by, suffer in silence, and wait for a divine signal. Rather, it is their absolute duty to act dynamically to accelerate and prepare the ground for the Mahdi’s arrival.
Khomeini argued that it is illogical for God to leave Muslims without leadership and justice throughout centuries of occultation. Therefore, religious scholars must establish a preliminary righteous government to lay the groundwork for his return. According to Khomeini, the Mahdi will not return to a world dominated by infidels where his followers are weak and oppressed; to facilitate his return, he requires a powerful, organized army of believers to defeat the disbelievers.
Under Khomeini’s philosophy, the Islamic Revolution positioned Iran as the leader of the activist current within Shia Islam – a current that believes military might and active struggle against injustice, evil, and infidels are the proper means to hasten redemption. Nevertheless, traditionalist and conservative Shia circles still exist, harboring reservations about this activist approach and preferring the passive path. However, the political successes of the activist approach continue to weaken the influence of these traditional circles, pushing them further to the margins of the Shia Muslim world.
Since Khomeini’s rise to power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian-backed Shia organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in other countries, view themselves as part of what they term the Axis of Resistance. Its mandate is to fight the forces of evil to forge the geopolitical and military conditions necessary for the Mahdi’s appearance.
And who are these forces of evil? The primary, historical adversaries of the Shias, dating back to the succession struggle following Muhammad’s death, are the Sunni Muslims. Sunnis are viewed as having usurped power from the Shias, murdered the sons of Ali, and perpetually persecuted Shia scholars and believers.
However, the Iranian clerical establishment, in its strategic wisdom, did not launch its initial campaign against this primary adversary. Instead, they sought to rally the Sunni world around what Khomeini identified as a common enemy to all factions of Islam: Western culture. This culture is represented above all by the United States of America, which he dubbed the Great Satan, and the State of Israel, the Jewish state, widely resented across the Muslim world and a staunch ally of the United States, which he termed the Little Satan.
Thus, shortly after Khomeini’s return to Iran, his loyalists, acting on his orders, stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held its diplomatic staff hostage for months. This was the first major defiance against the United States, whose president at the time, Jimmy Carter, had encouraged the protests against the Shah, pressured him to leave Iran, and effectively opened the gates for Khomeini and his revolution.
While Western nations fell time and again into the traps laid by Khomeini and his followers, believing misleading rhetoric and confusing statements, while ignoring realities on the ground, the leader who truly understood the magnitude of the shift and the severity of the threat was Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. On September 22, 1980, he launched a large-scale surprise attack on Iran.
The Iran-Iraq War lasted nearly eight years and claimed roughly one million lives. Even though most nations stood by Saddam Hussein, and despite his advantages of surprise and clear military superiority, he failed to defeat Iran. The war ended in a stalemate, with none of its political objectives achieved.
The Iran-Iraq War demonstrated the immense power of faith, the willingness for self-sacrifice, and the profound patience of Shia believers—elements that form the bedrock of the Islamic Revolution’s resistance. Khomeini at the outset, and his successors today, anchor their strength in one of the most fundamental values in Islam, shared by Shias and Sunnis alike: the virtue of patience – Sabr.
This is not the superficial patience of “waiting in a supermarket line”, but rather an enduring willingness to suffer over a long period to realize a dream and achieve an ultimate objective. While Western culture demands that everything be fast, easily attainable, and comfortable as part of the pursuit of material quality of life, devout Muslims are prepared to wait patiently, endure poverty, hunger, and hardship, and even sacrifice their lives. They do so out of the firm conviction that a life of hardship in this world serves as a passport to paradise in the next.
The same patience that enabled Iran to withstand Saddam Hussein’s Iraq now aids the IRGC and millions of Shia believers in Iran as they confront President Trump’s United States. The Shia clerics leading the IRGC have skillfully identified the vulnerabilities of the American president and his advisers. Just as they outmaneuvered the administrations of President Carter and President Obama in the past, they continue to manipulate and deceive President Trump and his administration today.
While it is difficult to anticipate which direction the American president will choose or what decisions he will make, one can predict with absolute certainty that the Shia clerics guiding Iran will not forget or forgive. Just as they have never forgiven the Sunnis for the slaughter of Ali’s sons at the Battle of Karbala 1,200 years ago, they will neither forget nor forgive the Americans for the humiliation, the assassination of their leaders, and the blows dealt to them by the U.S. and Israel over the past year.
Whatever agreement may be signed, or whatever conflict may continue to unfold, as long as Shia clerics remain in power in Iran, they will patiently await the day they can exact revenge, and their vengeance will be painful and ruthless. It is highly likely that this revenge will strike America first. As a vast and bureaucratic superpower whose leaders often fail to grasp the culture and mentality of the Middle East, it remains less vigilant. Above all, striking the Americans will yield a far greater psychological victory for the Iranians than targeting Israel or Jewish communities.
My conclusion from these observations is that we, as Israelis, must deepen our study and understanding of our neighbors, both near and far. Only a profound familiarity with their language, religion, culture, history, and core values will enable us to forecast trends and events, maintain readiness, and respond in the most effective and capable manner possible.
